Right now
The most recent data we hold from NOAA arrived 4 minutes ago, and this point is not in it. We record detections, not passes: an absence is not proof that nothing is there.
Nothing else has been detected within 20 km in the last 24 hours.
This alert expired on 28 May 2026 at 00:15 UTC. It is kept here as a record.
It is the 3rd strongest of the 109 detections recorded within 20 km of this point since 16 March 2026. Another comparable one was recorded here earlier the same day. 3 more were recorded here in the fortnight before it.
What the source measured
NOAA reported: Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 7:50PM EDT until May 27 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC
An estimated 68,088 people live within 50 km of this point.
Nearby, since 16 March 2026
- May 28, 2026 · score 39 · 5.6 km
- July 21, 2026 · score 39 · 9.8 km
- August 9, 2026 · score 39 · 14.8 km
How we know
Confirmed by 4 independent sources, including NOAA.
Our own score for this event is 39 out of 100, at 91 % confidence.
The score is ours, computed from intensity, exposed population and local history — not the source’s.
Computed under scoring rules v1. Rows carrying other versions were judged by different rules and are not directly comparable.
Event Data
| Type | Severe Weather |
| Severity | Medium |
| Calamity Score (ours) | 39 / 100 |
| Our confidence | 91% |
| Coordinates | 37.8754, -78.5242 |
| Nearest City | Charlottesville (18 km) |
| Population Exposed | 68.1K within 50 km |
| Impact Tier | significant |
| Timestamp | 2026-05-27T23:50:00.000Z |
| Source | https://api.weather.gov/alerts/merged_Severe Thunderstorm Warning_noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b570ba8495ea414f68f1a71b055960b6 |
Score Breakdown
Technical Details
| Event | Severe Thunderstorm Warning |
| Urgency | Immediate |
| Certainty | Observed |
| AreaDesc | Fauquier, VA; Prince William, VA; City of Manassas, VA; City of Manassas Park, VA; Amherst, VA; Appomattox, VA; Buckingham, VA; Campbell, VA; Charlotte, VA; Amherst, VA; Appomattox, VA; Bedford, VA; Botetourt, VA; Campbell, VA; City of Lynchburg, VA |
| Headline | Severe Thunderstorm Warning issued May 27 at 7:50PM EDT until May 27 at 8:15PM EDT by NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| Expires | 2026-05-27T20:15:00-04:00 |
| SenderName | NWS Baltimore MD/Washington DC |
| HasExactCoords | true |
| MergedCount | 3 |
| MergedIds | ["noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.b570ba8495ea414f68f1a71b055960b6869f06d8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.75db9a587478a72828eb98b52b5363e010b462b8.001.1","noaa_urn:oid:2.49.0.1.840.0.a9e3a43022579c6bc231b34d004652f08c21f890.001.1"] |
| Iem TypeSummary | D |
| Iem City | 1 N Lake Monticello |
| Iem County | Fluvanna |
| Iem State | VA |
| Iem Wfo | AKQ |
| Iem Remark | 2 trees knocked down in the Lake Monticello area. Time estimated from radar. |
| MergedSources | [{"id":"iem_D_38.060_-78.530_1779908160000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779908160000,"latitude":38.06,"longitude":-78.53},{"id":"iem_D_38.030_-78.520_1779908400000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779908400000,"latitude":38.03,"longitude":-78.52},{"id":"iem_D_37.930_-78.330_1779910260000","source":"iem","severity":"low","severityValue":25,"timestamp":1779910260000,"latitude":37.93,"longitude":-78.33}] |
Safety Information
Always follow official guidance from your local emergency management agency. This platform provides scientific monitoring data and is not a substitute for official warnings. If you are in immediate danger, contact your local emergency number.
Series begins 8 March 2026. Comparisons refer to that period only. Collection gap: 14-26 August 2026.
This data is aggregated algorithmically from scientific sources. Not a replacement for official emergency warnings.
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